02.22.07oscar time, oscar time! as in the past few years (every year since we've moved to new york, really), i'm woefully behind on my filmgoing and westcoastogling. no matter: let's do this! i'll be honest and asterisk movies i've actually seen; my predictions are italicized. if you've seen something i've missed and want to weigh in or, hell, want to weigh in as a general proposition, be my guest.
best actorleonardo dicaprio - blood diamond
ryan gosling - half nelson
peter o'toole - venus
will smith - the pursuit of happyness
forest whitaker - the last king of scotlandfie, fie on the academy for tapping leo for
blood diamond rather than
the departed! i don't think he'd have had much of a chance of winning either way - peter o'toole's honorary award in '02 doesn't really make up for the fact that he's lost
seven times, which should make the voters feel like assholes, and forest whitaker is a huge favorite - but his performance in the latter was so very nice, and his accent in the former was so very grating. anyway, i think whitaker takes it.
best supporting actoralan arkin - little miss sunshine
jackie earle haley - little children
djimon hounsou - blood diamond
eddie murphy - dreamgirls
mark wahlberg - the departed*i'm 25/75 on whether marky mark can actually take this - he was great, mind you, but one of many supporting greats in the film - but i'm still pissed about leo's misnomination. i want an acting win for
the departed.best actresspenelope cruz - volver
judi dench - notes on a scandal
helen mirren - the queen*meryl streep - the devil wears prada*
kate winslet - little children
this is helen mirren's to lose: her performance was sly like the fox, and it's up for the award of least resistance for
the queen (which, in a weaker year, would probably win best picture and best director as well). meryl streep was cute, but i don't think she's earned the oscar.
best supporting actressadriana barraza - babel
cate blanchett - notes on a scandal
abigail breslin - little miss sunshine
jennifer hudson - dreamgirlsreiko kikuchi - babel
america hearts jennifer hudson. the babel girls are unknowns, though reiko kikuchi has been forging a bjork-like reputation for herself on the red carpet.
little miss sunshine has rabid fans, but hudson's underdog cachet dwarfs abigail breslin's, if that's not a total oxymoron. cate blanchett...has won a lot of things. voters who haven't seen any of these will vote for jennifer hudson.
best song"i need to wake up" - an inconvenient truth
"listen" - dreamgirls"love you i do" - dreamgirls
"our town" - cars
"patience" - dreamgirls
it's tragic that the broadway version of
dreamgirls featured "and i am telling you i'm not going" (making it ineligible): after seeing jake gyllenhaal perform it on
saturday night live, i'm sold. i oppose randy newman whenever possible, so i reject him as a contender; melissa etheridge is a fine songwriter, but al and
an inconvenient truth will get theirs in the documentary category. "listen" is the strongest of the three
dreamgirls entries, so it gets the gold star.
best directoralejandro gonzalez inarritu - babel
martin scorsese - the departed*clint eastwood - letters from iwo jima
stephen frears - the queen*
paul greengrass - united 93*
i saw and was mightily impressed by
united 93 last weekend: greengrass is a talented guy, and i think his work with the victims' families (documented in extreme detail in the DVD extras, as well as in local media), both in a professional and personal sense, was extraordinary. frears did a fine job of wringing epic things from a series of tabloid stories; i don't know know if
the queen is "the best british film in years," as some have said, but it's solid. let's not beat around the bush, though: scorsese's still a virgin, and
the departed is more than good enough to put him over the top and clear hollywood's collective conscience (a little).
best picturebabel
the departed*
letters from iwo jima
little miss sunshine
the queen*
i'll cop to serious myopia: i loved
the departed so very much (that dropkick murphys song! that brilliant ensemble work! that leonardo dicaprio performance that, for once, i didn't hate!) that i have a hard time imagining that anything will beat it. its odds are a bit shakier if scorsese wins - voters do like to divide up the biggies - but still. it's marty's year.
best outfit (actor or actress)reese witherspoon - vintage cocktail dress
rachel mcadams - non-pink hair, non-bearded ryan gosling
jennifer garner - armani
penelope cruz - chanelsacha baron cohen - g-man suit
ms. witherspoon has looked fantastic in recent years, and she's been working righteous indignation and itty bitty dresses with a vengeance since her split from the husband. i'm only half-behind the canary yellow number she wore to the golden globes, however, and she's been burned before by stylists who re-lend her pieces. rachel mcadams is cute as hell, but triumph here hinges on her ditching her weird dye job (
so gwen stefani circa her wedding) and shaving her boyfriend while he's asleep. my office has declared a collective girl-crush on penelope since seeing
volver, so i'm counting on her to sustain her magnetism through sunday. she favors fairly classic designers - oscar de la renta and valentino are other faves - and she's a nominee, so i predict grandeur. side note: it pains me to omit cate blanchett (a perennial favorite) here, but her
golden globes look was heinous; i think she's been too busy with theatre in sydney to worry about the red carpet. which is understandable.